【初心者用】馬券の的中確率を押さえよう

この記事は、JRAで発売されている各馬券の的中確立について解説しています。競馬はクジとは異なり、能力や適性や展開があって初めて結果があるため、確立通りの結果にはなりません。

しかし、経常的に黒字収支に導くための重要なファクターであると考えますし、知っておいて損のないものだと思います。ただし、特に覚える必要はありません。気になった時に、この記事を見る程度で十分だと思います。

馬券の購入プランを正しく立てられるように、感覚を掴みましょう。

馬券の的中確率

単勝

1頭発売なし
2頭50.00%
3頭33.33%
4頭25.00%
5頭20.00%
6頭16.67%
7頭14.29%
8頭12.50%
9頭11.11%
10頭10.00%
11頭9.09%
12頭8.33%
13頭7.69%
14頭7.14%
15頭6.67%
16頭6.25%
17頭5.88%
18頭5.56%

馬連

1頭発売なし
2頭発売なし
3頭33.333%
4頭16.667%
5頭10.000%
6頭6.667%
7頭4.762%
8頭3.571%
9頭2.778%
10頭2.222%
11頭1.818%
12頭1.515%
13頭1.282%
14頭1.099%
15頭0.952%
16頭0.833%
17頭0.735%
18頭0.654%

ワイド

1頭発売なし
2頭発売なし
3頭発売なし
4頭50.000%
5頭30.000%
6頭20.000%
7頭14.286%
8頭10.714%
9頭8.333%
10頭6.667%
11頭5.455%
12頭4.545%
13頭3.846%
14頭3.297%
15頭2.857%
16頭2.500%
17頭2.206%
18頭1.961%

3連単

1頭発売なし
2頭発売なし
3頭発売なし
4頭4.167%
5頭1.667%
6頭0.833%
7頭0.476%
8頭0.298%
9頭0.198%
10頭0.139%
11頭0.101%
12頭0.076%
13頭0.058%
14頭0.046%
15頭0.037%
16頭0.030%
17頭0.025%
18頭0.020%

複勝

1頭発売なし
2頭発売なし
3頭発売なし
4頭発売なし
5頭40.00%
6頭33.33%
7頭28.57%
8頭37.50%
9頭33.33%
10頭30.00%
11頭27.27%
12頭25.00%
13頭23.08%
14頭21.43%
15頭20.00%
16頭18.75%
17頭17.65%
18頭16.67%

馬単

1頭発売なし
2頭発売なし
3頭16.667%
4頭8.333%
5頭5.000%
6頭3.333%
7頭2.381%
8頭1.786%
9頭1.389%
10頭1.111%
11頭0.909%
12頭0.758%
13頭0.641%
14頭0.549%
15頭0.476%
16頭0.417%
17頭0.368%
18頭0.327%

3連複

1頭発売なし
2頭発売なし
3頭発売なし
4頭25.000%
5頭10.000%
6頭5.000%
7頭2.857%
8頭1.786%
9頭1.190%
10頭0.833%
11頭0.606%
12頭0.455%
13頭0.350%
14頭0.275%
15頭0.220%
16頭0.179%
17頭0.147%
18頭0.123%

枠連

9頭10頭11頭12頭13頭14頭15頭16頭17頭18頭
1-10.83%0.74%0.65%
1-22.78%2.22%1.82%1.52%1.28%1.10%1.90%3.33%2.94%2.61%
1-32.78%2.22%1.82%1.52%1.28%2.20%1.90%3.33%2.94%2.61%
1-42.78%2.22%1.82%1.52%2.56%2.20%1.90%3.33%2.94%2.61%
1-52.78%2.22%1.82%3.03%2.56%2.20%1.90%3.33%2.94%2.61%
1-62.78%2.22%3.64%3.03%2.56%2.20%1.90%3.33%2.94%2.61%
1-72.78%4.44%3.64%3.03%2.56%2.20%1.90%3.33%2.94%3.92%
1-85.56%4.44%3.64%3.03%2.56%2.20%1.90%3.33%4.41%3.92%
2-20.95%0.83%0.74%0.65%
2-32.78%2.22%1.82%1.52%1.28%2.20%3.81%3.33%2.94%2.61%
2-42.78%2.22%1.82%1.52%2.56%2.20%3.81%3.33%2.94%2.61%
2-52.78%2.22%1.82%3.03%2.56%2.20%3.81%3.33%2.94%2.61%
2-62.78%2.22%3.64%3.03%2.56%2.20%3.81%3.33%2.94%2.61%
2-72.78%4.44%3.64%3.03%2.56%2.20%3.81%3.33%2.94%3.92%
2-85.56%4.44%3.64%3.03%2.56%2.20%3.81%3.33%4.41%3.92%
3-31.10%0.95%0.83%0.74%0.65%
3-42.78%2.22%1.82%1.52%2.56%4.40%3.81%3.33%2.94%2.61%
3-52.78%2.22%1.82%3.03%2.56%4.40%3.81%3.33%2.94%2.61%
3-62.78%2.22%3.64%3.03%2.56%4.40%3.81%3.33%2.94%2.61%
3-72.78%4.44%3.64%3.03%2.56%4.40%3.81%3.33%2.94%3.92%
3-85.56%4.44%3.64%3.03%2.56%4.40%3.81%3.33%4.41%3.92%
4-41.28%1.10%0.95%0.83%0.74%0.65%
4-52.78%2.22%1.82%3.03%5.13%4.40%3.81%3.33%2.94%2.61%
4-62.78%2.22%3.64%3.03%5.13%4.40%3.81%3.33%2.94%2.61%
4-72.78%4.44%3.64%3.03%5.13%4.40%3.81%3.33%2.94%3.92%
4-85.56%4.44%3.64%3.03%5.13%4.40%3.81%3.33%4.41%3.92%
5-51.52%1.28%1.10%0.95%0.83%0.74%0.65%
5-62.78%2.22%3.64%6.06%5.13%4.40%3.81%3.33%2.94%2.61%
5-72.78%4.44%3.64%6.06%5.13%4.40%3.81%3.33%2.94%3.92%
5-85.56%4.44%3.64%6.06%5.13%4.40%3.81%3.33%4.41%3.92%
6-61.82%1.52%1.28%1.10%0.95%0.83%0.74%0.65%
6-72.78%4.44%7.27%6.06%5.13%4.40%3.81%3.33%2.94%3.92%
6-85.56%4.44%7.27%6.06%5.13%4.40%3.81%3.33%4.41%3.92%
7-72.22%1.82%1.52%1.28%1.10%0.95%0.83%0.74%1.96%
7-85.56%8.89%7.27%6.06%5.13%4.40%3.81%3.33%4.41%5.88%
8-82.78%2.22%1.82%1.52%1.28%1.10%0.95%0.83%2.21%1.96%

種類・頭数に応じた馬券の的中確率は、上記のとおりです。
馬券の購入プランを正しく立てられるように、感覚を掴みましょう。

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